Bayesian system reliability and availability analysis
underthe vague environment based on
Exponential distribution
RaminGholizadeh
1
, Aliakbar M. Shirazi2
and Maghdoode Hadian3
1Young Researchers Club, Ayatollah Amoli Branch, Islamic Azad University, Amol ,
Iran.
2
Islamic Azad University, Ayatollah Amoli Branch, Mathematic Department,Iran.
3Young Researchers Club, Mashhad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad,Iran
Islamic Azad University, Iran
Abstract
Reliability modeling is the most important discipline of reliable engineering. The main purpose of this
paper is to provide a methodology for discussing the vague environment. Actually we discuss on Bayesian
system reliability and availability analysis on the vague environment based on Exponential distribution
under squared error symmetric and precautionary asymmetric loss functions. In order to apply the
Bayesian approach, model parameters are assumed to be vague random variables with vague prior
distributions. This approach will be used to create the vague Bayes estimate of system reliability and
availability by introducing and applying a theorem called “Resolution Identity” for vague sets. For this
purpose, the original problem is transformed into a nonlinear programming problem which is then divided
up into eight subproblems to simplify computations. Finally, the results obtained for the subproblems can
be used to determine the membership functions of the vague Bayes estimate of system reliability. Finally,
the sub problems can be solved by using any commercial optimizers, e.g. GAMS or LINGO.
Keywords:
Bayes point estimators, Vague environment, Nonlinear programming; System reliability,
System availability, Exponential distribution, Precautionary loss function.
Open source URL
Submission Link
No comments:
Post a Comment