FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION USING FUZZY TRANSFORM AND LOCAL LINEAR NEURO FUZZY MODELS
Hossein Iranmanesh1, Majid Abdollahzade2 and Arash Miranian3
1Department of Industrial Engineering, “University of Tehran” & “Institute for International Energy Studies”, Tehran, Iran
2Department of Mechanical Engineering, “K.N.Toosi University of Technology” & “Institute for International Energy Studies”, Tehran, Iran
3School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, “University of Tehran” & “Institute for International Energy Studies”, Tehran, Iran
ABSTRACT
This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on local linear neuro fuzzy (LLNF) model and fuzzy transform (F-transform), termed FT-LLNF, for prediction of energy consumption. LLNF models are powerful in modelling and forecasting highly nonlinear and complex time series. Starting from an optimal linear least square model, they add nonlinear neurons to the initial model as long as the model's accuracy is improved. Trained by local linear model tree learning (LOLIMOT) algorithm, the LLNF models provide maximum generalizability as well as the outstanding performance. Besides, the recently introduced technique of fuzzy transform (F-transform) is employed as a time series pre-processing method. The technique of F-transform, established based on the concept of fuzzy partitions, eliminates noisy variations of the original time series and results in a well-behaved series which can be predicted with higher accuracy. The proposed hybrid method of FT-LLNF is applied to prediction of energy consumption in the United States and Canada. The prediction results and comparison to optimized multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models and the LLNF itself, revealed the promising performance of the proposed approach for energy consumption prediction and its potential usage for real world applications.
KEYWORDS
LLNF, LOLIMOT, F-transform, energy consumption, forecasting
ORIGINAL SOURCE URL : http://airccse.org/journal/ijsc/papers/2411ijsc02.pdf
